By the time the census is published, the data is out of date. There is so much change taking place in South Africa, particularly in the metropolitan areas, and it doesn't help if the census is not 100% accurate anyway.

To help clients gain a greater understanding of the demographics of our cities, and how they are likely to change over the next 10 years, Douglas Parker Associates has developed a series of modelling techniques to provide current and future  population estimates by Life Stage and Life Plane, within Ethnic group, for all of the shopping centre catchment areas within each of the 8 major metropolitan areas.

Using norms for consumer income and expenditure based on the Douglas Parker Associates Lifestyle Model, market estimates are compiled at suburban level or shopping centre catchment area thus providing a picture of today and tomorrow in order to help clients tailor their branch networks to the potential and profile of each catchment. In doing this work we have obviously taken into account the relative densities of each residential area, and their potential for further development, in the light of generally higher densities throughout the metro areas.

We have also taken into account the observed patterns of migration from previously disadvantaged areas to the more affluent areas, and the displacement affects of that. People are tending to prefer secure residential complexes rather than large single residential erven, and we are seeing big changes taking place in the urban landscape Certain new catchment areas are likely to develop over the next ten years as the urban sprawl continues, and these have been accounted for, particularly on the periphery of major urban concentrations where growth is likely to be rapid.